In the absence of rapid, coordinated, and ambitious global action to combat climate change, we will likely be witness to the demise of one of Earth's great natural wonders.
A marine biologist inspects coral on the Great Barrier Reef in
April 2024. (Photo: David Gray/AFP via Getty Images)
The Great Barrier Reef recently experienced the highest ocean temperatures
in at least four centuries and faces an "existential threat" due to repeated
mass coral bleaching episodes, a study published Wednesday in Science
found.
The network of coral reefs off of Australia—the world's largest living
structure—has faced five of the six hottest three-month periods of average
surface temperature ever recorded just since 2016, each of which was
accompanied by devastating coral bleaching.
Ocean temperatures around the reef reached a record-breaking extreme from
January to March this year, with the three-month mean temperature 1.73°C
higher than the pre-1900 average, according to the study, authored by
researchers based in Australia.
The study includes climate modeling that attributes the temperatures to
fossil fuel-driven carbon emissions, and concludes that urgent climate
action is needed.
"This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes,
post-1900 warming trend, and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the
existential threat to the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem from anthropogenic
climate change is now realized," the study says.
"In the absence of rapid, coordinated, and ambitious global action to combat
climate change, we will likely be witness to the demise of one of Earth's
great natural wonders," the authors also wrote.
The researchers estimated the surface temperatures for 1618-1899 by using a
reconstruction method based on drilling into coral skeletons and analyzing
the chemical makeup. For the period from 1900 to 1995, they used both the
reconstruction method and measurements by modern instruments, and for the
last 30 years they used instrumental data.
They found that temperatures were relatively stable until 1900 but have
climbed steadily since, especially since 1960.
The trend has culminated in a series of bleaching events, in which stressed
corals expel the microscopic algae in their tissues and become transparent
or white. Without the helpful algae, which live inside them symbiotically,
corals are at risk of disease and death.
In interviews with journalists, the study authors spoke about the severity
of the threat to the Great Barrier Reef and the urgent need for climate
action.
"The heat extremes are occurring too often for those corals to effectively
adapt and evolve," Ben Henley, a paleoclimatologist at the University of
Melbourne and lead author of the study, toldThe New York Times. "If we don't
divert from our current course, our generation will likely witness the
demise of one of Earth's great natural wonders, the Great Barrier Reef."
Henley said he snorkeled with his father on the Great Barrier Reef as a
child.
"You can't even take in the diversity," he said. "It's a kaleidoscope of
color, it's absolutely spectacular."
He said he worries that his own 2-year-old daughter may not be able to enjoy
the same experience.
"In her childhood years the reef is likely to see immense destruction," he
said.
He called for strong global action so that his daughter and members of her
generation could "marvel at the reef in their lifetimes."
Helen McGregor, a scientist at the University of Wollongong and study
co-author, told the BBC the new research "could send a huge signal to the
world about how grave the problem is."
"We know what we need to do," she added. "We have international agreements
in place [to limit global temperature rise]."
Scientists not involved in the study agreed about the importance of the
research, not just for the Great Barrier Reef but for coral reefs more
generally.
"It's a stunningly important summary of the history of the world's largest
reef system," Stephen Palumbi, a marine biologist at Stanford University,
told the Times. "The paper lays out the danger that corals all
around the world face from this heat."