Global warming may threaten Amazon

September 9, 2003

Global warming could lead to a shift in weather patterns that would cause the Amazon rainforest to dry up and die in 50 years, it was claimed today.
The frightening prediction is one of many climate-change models being studied by experts.

It results in a "super El nino" developing in the Pacific, a bubble of heat that would spell ecological disaster in south America.

Dr Mat Collins, from the Meteorological Office in Reading, Berkshire, said the chances of this happening were between 10 and 20 per cent, according to preliminary data.

Such an El nino event would have a drastic effect on rainfall in the Amazon, causing the forest's lush vegetation to wither and die within 50 years.

Since vegetation helped to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, the Amazon's loss would raise CO2 levels by 20-30 per cent.

Although the forecast seemed extreme, it could happen even if global warming remained within current predicted levels, said Dr Collins.

Speaking at the British Association Festival of Science at the University of Salford, he said: "El nino is a natural phenomenon that occurs every three to seven years.

"What happens when we increase greenhouse gases is we have more of these events.

"This particular model has the most extreme super El nino events, but it also has the best relationship between el nino and the Amazon." In some ways, therefore, the model was especially realistic, said Dr Collins.

There are some indications that el ninos have a weak influence on weather in Europe, where they cause more rainfall.

A strong el nino in 1997-98 was linked to a spell of very wet European weather.

- PA