As climate heating adds stress to the landscape, increasing mortality to aspen and other forest types, livestock effectively increase the effects of drought. It is time for the Forest Service and other land managers to stop deflecting around the destruction of aspen and native plant communities by livestock.
Aspen stand in the Bear River Range dying out in cattle
allotment. Photo: John Carter.
The Aspen Decline
What will our forests in the west be like in fall without those golden yellow leaves shining in the sun? Aspen forests in the Intermountain West support levels of biodiversity only exceeded by riparian (stream) communities. In this time of Climate Breakdown, aspen have been declining due to drought and temperature stress, with die-offs of large areas in the Western US in recent decades. Water stress during drought creates air bubbles in the water transport system of aspen, blocking flow of water and leading to mortality. Forest dieback during drought was simulated under a high emissions climate scenario showing that drought stress will exceed the mortality threshold for aspen in the Southwestern US by the 2050s.
Climate Breakdown
We hear slogans such as “net zero by 2050”, meaning we store as much carbon as we release. But the facts reveal that this goal will not be met. The world growth in energy demand, meat production, and population almost certainly will cause exceedance of the mortality threshold for aspen. Triage in the form of major changes in western land management is a must if we are to have a chance to save aspen, other western plant communities, and the wildlife that depend upon them.
Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and crypto currency with their large data centers consume huge amounts of energy. AI consumes 33 times more energy than traditional computing systems. Barclay’s estimated that the global demand for oil would increase by 15% by 2050 despite adoption of electric vehicles and potential efficiency gains, air travel would place greater demand on oil, and petrochemicals will be the biggest contributor to oil consumption as demand continues to grow. In their “Deadlock” scenario, Barclay’s predicted that the world will fall way short of the goals of the Paris Agreement. This is due to the inability to decarbonize and lack of political will. Livestock production emissions are currently estimated at 11.1 – 19.6 percent of global emissions while global consumption of meat is expected to increase by 90% by 2050.
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Aspen in Sagebrush Steppe on Kiesha’s Preserve, Idaho. (No
livestock grazing for 27 years) Photo: John Carter.