Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 
VOL. 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
[Julienne Stroeve, Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, Mark Serreze]¹, Marika M. Holland²

From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33�38% of the observed September trend from 1953�2006 is externally forced, growing to 47�57% from 1979�2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance. 

¹National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ²Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA